2018 SC Model Results
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Year:        2018

Species:      AmericanBlackBear

Study Site:    Mono creek



Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
19 20 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 116.2644
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 116.9236
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 118.7103
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 119.4639
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 122.2659
sc.fm2.1 snow 128.4427
sc.fm2.2 temp 131.5311
sc.fm2.0 lure 138.6216
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 138.8268
sc.fm1 dot model 143.7446
sc.fm2.3 pass 146.3491



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.84861
psi.ind 0.27689
beta.ind[3] 0.17539
beta.ind[1] 0.13970
beta.ind[6] 0.01673
beta.ind[5] 0.01352
beta.ind[4] 0.01297
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.87727
beta.ind[4] 0.55024
psi.ind 0.37736
beta.ind[3] 0.26582
beta.ind[1] 0.17303
beta.ind[5] 0.11170
beta.ind[6] 0.03194
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.92255
psi.ind 0.51094
beta.ind[3] 0.47830
beta.ind[4] 0.35327
beta.ind[1] 0.31370




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 9460 1.090 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 9460 0.677 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 12430 1.454 1.431 1.13 1.78 0
lam0 13560 0.714 0.424 0.16 1.27 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 12220 1.133 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 12220 0.704 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 15427 1.646 1.596 1.30 2.00 0
beta0.lam0 14193 -1.567 -1.511 -2.60 -0.58 0.04326
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -1.298 -1.157 -2.04 -0.52 0.00749

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 11278 1.128 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 11278 0.701 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 14508 1.570 1.521 1.24 1.91 0
beta0.lam0 10071 -2.230 -1.979 -3.63 -0.82 0.0211
beta.lam0[1] 11150 -2.364 -2.147 -3.65 -1.01 0

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 12102 1.135 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 12102 0.705 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 15107 1.663 1.593 1.30 2.00 0
beta0.lam0 13847 -1.711 -1.696 -2.68 -0.74 0.01903
beta.lam0[1] 16500 1.046 1.029 0.64 1.47 0

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 6719 1.166 err 1.00 2.00 err
D 6719 0.724 err 0.62 1.24 err
sigma 15240 1.713 1.653 1.30 2.11 0
beta0.lam0 12994 -1.095 -1.127 -1.98 -0.17 0.1419
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -80.663 -22.778 -161.42 -0.68 0.37121

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 12704 1.124 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 12704 0.698 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 15239 1.619 1.583 1.28 1.97 0
beta0.lam0 10852 -2.766 -2.542 -4.13 -1.28 0.0036
beta.lam0[1] 15731 -1.453 -1.388 -2.30 -0.55 0.01492
beta.lam0[2] 12820 -1.996 -1.68 -3.13 -0.80 0

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 3868 1.216 err 1.00 2.00 err
D 3868 0.755 err 0.62 1.24 err
sigma 14686 1.795 1.72 1.37 2.18 0
beta0.lam0 11048 -1.776 -1.794 -2.75 -0.72 0.01311
beta.lam0[1] 16291 -1.295 -1.211 -2.06 -0.53 0.00801
beta.lam0[2] 16500 -79.935 -9.133 -160.40 0.22 0.38905

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 10856 1.134 err 1.00 1.00 err
D 10856 0.705 err 0.62 0.62 err
sigma 16284 1.607 1.53 1.26 1.96 0
beta0.lam0 9569 -3.384 -3.153 -4.90 -1.80 0
beta.lam0[1] 14828 -1.719 -1.64 -2.80 -0.65 0.01939
beta.lam0[2] 12240 -1.683 -1.291 -2.81 -0.53 0.00854
beta.lam0[3] 15342 0.872 0.822 0.35 1.40 0.02368

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 114 4.543 err 1.00 2.00 err
D 114 2.823 err 0.62 1.24 err
sigma 1408 1.776 1.72 1.35 2.20 0
beta0.lam0 410 -3.720 -3.35 -5.30 -1.95 0
beta.lam0[1] 14558 -1.697 -1.534 -2.75 -0.57 0.02514
beta.lam0[2] 12033 -1.703 -1.309 -2.85 -0.59 0.00643
beta.lam0[3] 15514 0.852 0.816 0.32 1.36 0.03273
beta.lam0[4] 16942 -79.516 -9.763 -160.10 -0.61 0.33971

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 668 1.669 err 1.00 2.00 err
D 668 1.037 err 0.62 1.24 err
sigma 9982 1.771 1.706 1.36 2.19 0
beta0.lam0 6 -31.157 -9.272 -80.27 -2.36 0
beta.lam0[1] 15483 -1.594 -1.454 -2.74 -0.50 0.06431
beta.lam0[2] 6 -33.951 -8.683 -90.94 -0.55 0
beta.lam0[3] 6 25.500 6.501 0.34 68.24 0.11162
beta.lam0[4] 15492 -80.902 -10.909 -161.16 -0.13 0.37755
beta.lam0[5] 6 28.946 6.773 -0.61 78.95 0.27323

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 39 5.666 err 1.00 2.00 err
D 39 3.520 err 0.62 1.24 err
sigma 840 1.775 1.747 1.34 2.20 0
beta0.lam0 158 -3.929 -3.411 -5.66 -1.97 0
beta.lam0[1] 7812 -1.757 -1.386 -3.15 -0.21 0.11902
beta.lam0[2] 6545 -1.820 -1.412 -3.49 -0.21 0.15608
beta.lam0[3] 16500 0.875 0.831 0.32 1.39 0.02731
beta.lam0[4] 16872 -80.547 -14.07 -159.97 0.36 0.39045
beta.lam0[5] 8410 0.086 0.606 -1.45 1.75 0.78434

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]