2018 SC Model Results
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Year:        2018

Species:      LongTailedWeasel

Study Site:    Mono creek




Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
19 5 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm1 dot model 55.72972
sc.fm2.1 snow 57.64239
sc.fm2.2 temp 57.95034
sc.fm2.0 lure 59.08269
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 59.66184
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 61.04305
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 61.13229
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 63.13494
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 64.30232
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 64.58729
sc.fm2.3 pass 70.69572



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.12600
beta.ind[2] 0.00255
beta.ind[3] 0.00097
beta.ind[1] 0.00079
beta.ind[4] 0.00000
beta.ind[5] 0.00000
beta.ind[6] 0.00000
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.12774
beta.ind[4] 0.00303
beta.ind[2] 0.00273
beta.ind[3] 0.00133
beta.ind[1] 0.00121
beta.ind[6] 0.00097
beta.ind[5] 0.00091
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.16404
beta.ind[2] 0.00376
beta.ind[1] 0.00194
beta.ind[3] 0.00127
beta.ind[4] 0.00000




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 760 142.700 63.250 31.00 265.00 0
D 760 88.651 39.294 18.64 164.01 0
sigma 6092 0.160 0.154 0.09 0.22 0
lam0 3984 0.488 0.036 0.00 1.40 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 795 192.394 284.587 93.00 300.00 0.00000
D 795 119.523 176.797 57.78 186.37 0.00000
sigma 11233 0.178 0.169 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 3605 -3.566 -3.705 -5.03 -2.13 0.00585
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.479 -0.343 -1.45 0.52 0.90084

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 812 185.914 259.478 89.00 300.00 0.00000
D 812 115.498 161.199 55.29 186.37 0.00000
sigma 10828 0.178 0.173 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 2930 -3.767 -3.709 -5.44 -2.19 0.00803
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -1.074 -0.725 -2.30 0.20 0.47135

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 777 187.801 290.991 89.00 300.00 0.00000
D 777 116.670 180.776 55.29 186.37 0.00000
sigma 8888 0.179 0.175 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 3791 -3.455 -3.581 -4.92 -2.10 0.01162
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.263 0.274 -0.46 1.03 0.82330

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 728 175.532 241.771 71.00 300.00 0.00000
D 728 109.048 150.198 44.11 186.37 0.00000
sigma 10503 0.173 0.168 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 2576 -2.955 -3.139 -4.80 -1.38 0.04518
beta.lam0[1] 10756 -14.668 -0.439 -55.16 9.39 0.96887

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 823 186.264 228.527 92.00 300.00 0.00000
D 823 115.715 141.970 57.15 186.37 0.00000
sigma 12047 0.178 0.175 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5030 -4.013 -4.059 -5.76 -2.42 0.00694
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.498 -0.250 -1.49 0.55 0.91412
beta.lam0[2] 17008 -1.057 -0.707 -2.26 0.19 0.42992

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 664 178.378 289.116 75.00 300.00 0.00000
D 664 110.816 179.611 45.97 185.75 0.00000
sigma 9537 0.175 0.170 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 2585 -3.239 -3.545 -5.06 -1.56 0.03592
beta.lam0[1] 16947 -0.459 -0.274 -1.37 0.55 0.89140
beta.lam0[2] 4333 -0.251 -0.315 -3.84 2.84 0.96072

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 754 186.930 274.010 88.00 300.00 0.00000
D 754 116.129 170.226 54.67 186.37 0.00000
sigma 12413 0.178 0.173 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 4752 -4.130 -4.266 -5.89 -2.48 0.00702
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.521 -0.265 -1.50 0.56 0.88290
beta.lam0[2] 16500 -1.083 -0.725 -2.35 0.25 0.48713
beta.lam0[3] 15954 -0.006 -0.060 -0.84 0.80 0.99398

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 707 174.616 230.792 74.00 300.00 0.00000
D 707 108.479 143.377 45.97 186.37 0.00000
sigma 8877 0.173 0.170 0.11 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 2401 -3.770 -3.903 -5.95 -1.92 0.02805
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.506 -0.255 -1.52 0.60 0.91571
beta.lam0[2] 17491 -1.091 -0.749 -2.33 0.24 0.49288
beta.lam0[3] 16500 -0.013 -0.060 -0.83 0.82 0.99194
beta.lam0[4] 1019 -0.279 -0.547 -3.98 2.80 0.95550

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 694 177.424 250.220 73.00 300.00 0.00000
D 694 110.223 155.447 44.73 185.75 0.00000
sigma 8692 0.173 0.172 0.10 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 1463 -4.178 -4.164 -6.54 -2.06 0.02495
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.552 -0.153 -1.65 0.62 0.95271
beta.lam0[2] 13816 -1.700 -1.237 -3.32 -0.03 0.22333
beta.lam0[3] 14734 0.643 0.277 -0.77 2.04 0.90973
beta.lam0[4] 4231 -0.365 -0.646 -4.05 2.73 0.94567
beta.lam0[5] 15177 1.198 0.853 -0.61 2.88 0.60041

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 613 171.026 200.850 67.00 300.00 0.00000
D 613 106.248 124.777 41.00 185.75 0.00000
sigma 10216 0.172 0.166 0.10 0.24 0.00000
beta0.lam0 2725 -3.993 -4.228 -6.22 -1.94 0.02505
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.481 -0.352 -1.81 0.79 0.83726
beta.lam0[2] 15956 -1.238 -0.888 -2.74 0.41 0.53341
beta.lam0[3] 16500 -0.078 -0.053 -0.95 0.78 0.99110
beta.lam0[4] 4649 -0.274 -0.651 -4.13 3.01 0.93239
beta.lam0[5] 16500 0.472 0.556 -0.86 1.89 0.74570

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]