2017 SC Model Results
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Year:        2017

Species:      AmericanBlackBear

Study Site:    Humphreys Basin



Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
31 5 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm2.0 lure 52.55212
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 52.69992
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 53.25891
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 55.24470
sc.fm1 dot model 55.64534
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 56.12091
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 57.49801
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 58.53954
sc.fm2.1 snow 61.89021
sc.fm2.2 temp 63.54343
sc.fm2.3 pass 64.64268



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[1] 0.24618
psi.ind 0.15810
beta.ind[2] 0.01012
beta.ind[6] 0.00188
beta.ind[3] 0.00097
beta.ind[4] 0.00000
beta.ind[5] 0.00000
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[6] 0.38327
psi.ind 0.19677
beta.ind[1] 0.15933
beta.ind[2] 0.01061
beta.ind[4] 0.00576
beta.ind[3] 0.00212
beta.ind[5] 0.00194
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[1] 0.32830
psi.ind 0.22603
beta.ind[2] 0.01794
beta.ind[3] 0.00236
beta.ind[4] 0.00000




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 916 4.075 1.000 1.00 4.00 0
D 916 2.462 0.604 0.60 2.42 0
sigma 16500 2.259 2.238 1.85 2.69 0
lam0 7411 0.056 0.036 0.00 0.11 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 349 120.388 1.585 1.00 255.00 0.00000
D 349 72.751 0.958 0.60 154.10 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.284 2.307 1.85 2.70 0.00000
beta0.lam0 474 -8.395 -9.151 -11.07 -5.04 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 1.018 0.960 0.57 1.48 0.00158

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 296 107.515 1.292 1.00 254.00 0.00000
D 296 64.972 0.781 0.60 153.49 0.00000
sigma 16866 2.280 2.268 1.86 2.71 0.00000
beta0.lam0 448 -8.160 -9.031 -11.26 -3.69 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 12660 -2.335 -1.529 -4.60 -0.12 0.19973

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 324 111.830 1.292 1.00 258.00 0.00000
D 324 67.580 0.781 0.60 155.91 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.283 2.299 1.85 2.70 0.00000
beta0.lam0 387 -7.107 -8.512 -9.65 -3.58 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.285 0.239 -0.46 1.01 0.85194

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 200 80.904 1.000 1.00 231.00 0.00000
D 200 48.891 0.604 0.60 139.59 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.273 2.295 1.86 2.69 0.00000
beta0.lam0 209 -6.363 -8.588 -9.38 -2.71 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 3696 1.062 1.127 -0.92 3.09 0.68156

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 307 117.061 1.585 1.00 259.00 0.00000
D 307 70.741 0.958 0.60 156.52 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.283 2.254 1.84 2.70 0.00000
beta0.lam0 547 -9.159 -9.505 -12.26 -5.31 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 15736 0.895 0.849 0.44 1.31 0.00429
beta.lam0[2] 13327 -1.824 -0.971 -3.82 0.16 0.37625

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 258 94.653 1.000 1.00 244.00 0.00000
D 258 57.199 0.604 0.60 147.45 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.276 2.265 1.86 2.71 0.00000
beta0.lam0 364 -8.125 -9.402 -11.32 -4.26 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 15219 1.044 1.005 0.59 1.49 0.00129
beta.lam0[2] 2871 1.382 1.258 -0.55 3.25 0.44529

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 380 129.143 1.877 1.00 259.00 0.00000
D 380 78.042 1.134 0.60 156.52 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.286 2.283 1.87 2.72 0.00000
beta0.lam0 837 -9.670 -9.863 -12.96 -6.29 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.952 0.900 0.48 1.42 0.00220
beta.lam0[2] 13739 -1.763 -0.885 -3.86 0.26 0.48646
beta.lam0[3] 16061 0.210 0.267 -0.65 1.13 0.90866

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 315 104.926 1.000 1.00 249.00 0.00000
D 315 63.407 0.604 0.60 150.47 0.00000
sigma 16828 2.277 2.314 1.85 2.71 0.00000
beta0.lam0 413 -9.507 -10.471 -12.97 -5.01 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 15492 1.003 0.907 0.50 1.48 0.00326
beta.lam0[2] 13302 -1.634 -1.035 -3.63 0.46 0.60592
beta.lam0[3] 16268 0.322 0.264 -0.60 1.31 0.86083
beta.lam0[4] 3656 1.351 1.268 -0.52 3.27 0.46393

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 307 113.061 1.292 1.00 256.00 0.00000
D 307 68.324 0.781 0.60 154.70 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.279 2.282 1.87 2.72 0.00000
beta0.lam0 598 -10.278 -10.728 -14.12 -5.62 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 12637 0.978 0.951 0.48 1.46 0.00285
beta.lam0[2] 9329 -2.483 -1.259 -5.15 0.30 0.41275
beta.lam0[3] 11601 1.326 0.983 -0.87 3.52 0.63792
beta.lam0[4] 3368 1.324 1.172 -0.52 3.28 0.50381
beta.lam0[5] 12419 1.561 1.117 -1.32 4.53 0.79173

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 278 105.115 1.000 1.00 255.00 0.00000
D 278 63.521 0.604 0.60 154.10 0.00000
sigma 16500 2.277 2.282 1.86 2.70 0.00000
beta0.lam0 581 -10.325 -10.753 -14.62 -5.62 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 3532 -1.072 0.517 -4.02 1.65 0.91215
beta.lam0[2] 4396 -2.662 -1.453 -5.77 0.49 0.49762
beta.lam0[3] 16004 0.286 0.328 -0.71 1.34 0.88256
beta.lam0[4] 3136 1.297 1.168 -0.59 3.18 0.50156
beta.lam0[5] 3471 -2.490 -0.774 -5.87 0.68 0.68888

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]