2017 SC Model Results
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Year:        2017

Species:      LongTailedWeasel

Study Site:    Humphreys Basin



Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
31 7 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm2.2 temp 71.20936
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 73.93692
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 74.92841
sc.fm2.1 snow 76.32356
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 76.85898
sc.fm1 dot model 77.35835
sc.fm2.3 pass 78.62341
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 78.80854
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 79.52414
sc.fm2.0 lure 80.95556
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 81.60901



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.13504
beta.ind[3] 0.07297
beta.ind[2] 0.01073
beta.ind[1] 0.00115
beta.ind[4] 0.00000
beta.ind[5] 0.00000
beta.ind[6] 0.00000
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.13719
beta.ind[3] 0.07485
beta.ind[2] 0.01067
beta.ind[4] 0.00533
beta.ind[5] 0.00309
beta.ind[1] 0.00103
beta.ind[6] 0.00061
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.18523
beta.ind[3] 0.10455
beta.ind[2] 0.01582
beta.ind[1] 0.00121
beta.ind[4] 0.00000




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 839 185.754 210.258 92.00 300.00 0
D 839 112.252 127.060 55.60 181.29 0
sigma 7818 0.176 0.171 0.11 0.24 0
lam0 4691 0.154 0.043 0.01 0.22 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 1031 209.573 289.091 120.00 300.00 0.00000
D 1031 126.646 174.699 72.52 181.29 0.00000
sigma 10737 0.190 0.187 0.13 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5178 -3.361 -3.446 -4.46 -2.20 0.00118
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.254 -0.052 -0.98 0.50 0.99004

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 1013 213.606 293.133 126.00 300.00 0.00000
D 1013 129.083 177.142 76.14 181.29 0.00000
sigma 13043 0.193 0.185 0.13 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 9158 -4.402 -4.094 -6.12 -2.75 0.00033
beta.lam0[1] 13768 -1.869 -1.138 -3.54 -0.12 0.16815

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 910 208.120 293.806 115.00 300.00 0.00000
D 910 125.768 177.549 69.50 181.29 0.00000
sigma 11110 0.185 0.176 0.12 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5679 -4.114 -4.063 -5.79 -2.53 0.00768
beta.lam0[1] 16500 1.413 1.304 0.55 2.28 0.01286

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 980 208.470 278.753 122.00 300.00 0.00000
D 980 125.979 168.452 73.73 181.29 0.00000
sigma 12416 0.192 0.191 0.13 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5293 -3.902 -3.860 -5.36 -2.45 0.00135
beta.lam0[1] 7383 1.704 1.506 -0.31 3.53 0.36953

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 1049 216.050 281.587 131.00 300.00 0.00000
D 1049 130.560 170.164 79.16 181.29 0.00000
sigma 12383 0.192 0.189 0.13 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 9639 -4.461 -4.215 -6.16 -2.82 0.00039
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.202 0.001 -0.89 0.54 0.99999
beta.lam0[2] 14672 -1.828 -1.242 -3.49 -0.08 0.18373

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 1020 214.021 288.974 127.00 300.00 0.00000
D 1020 129.334 174.628 76.75 181.29 0.00000
sigma 12926 0.191 0.185 0.13 0.26 0.00000
beta0.lam0 6545 -4.025 -4.050 -5.47 -2.55 0.00103
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.175 -0.036 -0.90 0.59 0.99262
beta.lam0[2] 8156 1.680 1.305 -0.40 3.47 0.37637

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 975 203.660 275.312 111.00 300.00 0.00000
D 975 123.073 166.372 67.08 181.29 0.00000
sigma 11402 0.185 0.183 0.12 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 7195 -4.912 -4.737 -6.87 -2.91 0.00491
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.254 -0.107 -1.02 0.59 0.98042
beta.lam0[2] 14698 -1.333 -0.838 -3.00 0.39 0.54617
beta.lam0[3] 14705 1.293 1.144 0.41 2.19 0.03577

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 886 208.587 280.012 115.00 300.00 0.00000
D 886 126.050 169.213 69.50 181.29 0.00000
sigma 9895 0.188 0.184 0.12 0.26 0.00000
beta0.lam0 4180 -5.353 -5.385 -7.65 -3.02 0.00581
beta.lam0[1] 15158 -0.173 0.012 -0.97 0.70 0.99954
beta.lam0[2] 13026 -1.332 -0.817 -2.97 0.38 0.56235
beta.lam0[3] 12747 1.244 1.120 0.29 2.16 0.07405
beta.lam0[4] 5562 1.222 1.010 -1.08 3.24 0.61220

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 934 212.793 289.511 126.00 300.00 0.00000
D 934 128.592 174.953 76.14 181.29 0.00000
sigma 9497 0.191 0.188 0.13 0.26 0.00000
beta0.lam0 95 -24.064 -15.470 -41.65 -5.62 0.00307
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.097 0.065 -0.79 0.62 0.99081
beta.lam0[2] 96 -24.090 -12.739 -44.63 -1.92 0.12288
beta.lam0[3] 100 12.731 7.291 1.94 22.40 0.02012
beta.lam0[4] 2091 1.448 1.263 -0.63 3.43 0.50295
beta.lam0[5] 98 14.577 7.913 1.72 26.56 0.09697

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 848 205.740 289.475 112.00 300.00 0.00000
D 848 124.330 174.931 67.68 181.29 0.00000
sigma 11028 0.186 0.183 0.12 0.25 0.00000
beta0.lam0 3639 -5.916 -5.743 -8.53 -3.28 0.00371
beta.lam0[1] 13715 0.060 0.198 -1.04 1.21 0.93920
beta.lam0[2] 11633 -1.932 -1.344 -3.94 0.26 0.38286
beta.lam0[3] 11933 1.323 1.193 0.29 2.26 0.06662
beta.lam0[4] 3544 1.204 0.954 -1.06 3.48 0.64441
beta.lam0[5] 14858 0.616 0.691 -0.57 1.89 0.62084

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]