2019 SC Model Results
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Year:        2019

Species:      AmericanBlackBear

Study Site:    Ritter Range



Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
32 19 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 164.2895
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 164.4152
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 166.1720
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 166.5970
sc.fm2.2 temp 170.1855
sc.fm1 dot model 172.1906
sc.fm2.0 lure 174.7588
sc.fm2.1 snow 174.8586
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 176.1140
sc.fm2.3 pass 176.4841
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 177.5892



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.12631
beta.ind[3] 0.00297
beta.ind[1] 0.00236
beta.ind[2] 0.00182
beta.ind[4] 0.00000
beta.ind[5] 0.00000
beta.ind[6] 0.00000
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.12630
beta.ind[3] 0.00455
beta.ind[1] 0.00194
beta.ind[2] 0.00194
beta.ind[6] 0.00164
beta.ind[4] 0.00109
beta.ind[5] 0.00073
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
psi.ind 0.16895
beta.ind[3] 0.00648
beta.ind[1] 0.00376
beta.ind[2] 0.00297
beta.ind[4] 0.00000




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 11201 2.764 2.000 2.00 4.00 0
D 11201 1.552 1.123 1.12 2.25 0
sigma 14770 2.044 2.087 1.67 2.43 0
lam0 13815 0.156 0.118 0.05 0.25 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 9733 3.080 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.00000
D 9733 1.730 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.00000
sigma 13670 2.048 2.059 1.65 2.43 0.00000
beta0.lam0 11184 -2.301 -2.214 -3.13 -1.49 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.567 -0.513 -1.11 -0.03 0.24904

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 6766 3.011 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.0000
D 6766 1.691 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.0000
sigma 14061 2.056 2.063 1.68 2.45 0.0000
beta0.lam0 9862 -2.232 -2.113 -3.02 -1.39 0.0000
beta.lam0[1] 16904 0.405 0.413 0.05 0.78 0.1976

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 6007 3.115 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.0000
D 6007 1.749 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.0000
sigma 13674 2.034 2.022 1.65 2.42 0.0000
beta0.lam0 12066 -2.339 -2.222 -3.12 -1.56 0.0000
beta.lam0[1] 16008 0.505 0.518 0.11 0.91 0.1196

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 10102 3.099 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.00000
D 10102 1.740 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.00000
sigma 13600 2.035 2.048 1.64 2.43 0.00000
beta0.lam0 12814 -2.160 -2.123 -2.95 -1.34 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 15764 -0.014 0.027 -0.90 0.88 0.99709

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 10282 2.968 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.00000
D 10282 1.667 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.00000
sigma 13712 2.065 2.089 1.67 2.45 0.00000
beta0.lam0 10797 -2.336 -2.204 -3.18 -1.49 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.505 -0.465 -1.01 0.02 0.31806
beta.lam0[2] 16500 0.367 0.360 0.00 0.72 0.25711

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 9987 3.112 2.000 2.00 5.00 0.00000
D 9987 1.748 1.123 1.12 2.81 0.00000
sigma 14745 2.035 2.060 1.62 2.42 0.00000
beta0.lam0 12213 -2.288 -2.243 -3.10 -1.41 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16933 -0.563 -0.472 -1.06 0.00 0.27194
beta.lam0[2] 15953 -0.073 -0.080 -0.96 0.82 0.99293

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 10218 2.876 2.000 2.00 4.00 0.00000
D 10218 1.615 1.123 1.12 2.25 0.00000
sigma 14020 2.035 2.056 1.66 2.40 0.00000
beta0.lam0 12248 -2.824 -2.754 -3.75 -1.89 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16647 -0.850 -0.716 -1.49 -0.18 0.08283
beta.lam0[2] 16500 0.625 0.618 0.23 1.03 0.04719
beta.lam0[3] 16500 1.210 1.209 0.59 1.84 0.00291

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 11527 3.118 2.997 2.00 4.00 0.00000
D 11527 1.751 1.683 1.12 2.25 0.00000
sigma 14156 1.985 1.986 1.61 2.36 0.00000
beta0.lam0 14207 -2.617 -2.536 -3.54 -1.70 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.838 -0.765 -1.43 -0.20 0.06244
beta.lam0[2] 16136 0.714 0.699 0.28 1.11 0.02103
beta.lam0[3] 17076 1.268 1.190 0.62 1.87 0.00248
beta.lam0[4] 16104 -0.730 -0.602 -1.67 0.18 0.47343

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 12192 3.127 2.000 2.00 4.00 0.00000
D 12192 1.756 1.123 1.12 2.25 0.00000
sigma 14919 1.985 2.008 1.61 2.37 0.00000
beta0.lam0 14403 -2.620 -2.607 -3.53 -1.66 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16931 -0.820 -0.695 -1.43 -0.19 0.08331
beta.lam0[2] 16897 0.664 0.607 0.19 1.14 0.07285
beta.lam0[3] 14180 1.264 1.258 0.62 1.88 0.00406
beta.lam0[4] 15756 -0.702 -0.667 -1.65 0.22 0.51039
beta.lam0[5] 16500 0.131 0.103 -0.43 0.70 0.93501

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 11594 3.122 3.017 2.00 4.00 0.00000
D 11594 1.753 1.694 1.12 2.25 0.00000
sigma 14479 1.984 1.992 1.61 2.35 0.00000
beta0.lam0 14182 -2.726 -2.628 -3.67 -1.76 0.00000
beta.lam0[1] 16500 -0.949 -0.869 -1.58 -0.28 0.04020
beta.lam0[2] 17706 0.565 0.567 -0.01 1.13 0.27191
beta.lam0[3] 16500 1.256 1.184 0.61 1.90 0.00461
beta.lam0[4] 15853 -0.705 -0.670 -1.62 0.23 0.49187
beta.lam0[5] 16500 -0.215 -0.179 -0.79 0.39 0.88691

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]