2019 SC Model Results
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Year:        2019

Species:      LongTailedWeasel

Study Site:    Ritter Range



Metadata Summary:

n_sites N_detections rep_period model_agg_M iterations burnin thin state_buffer
32 26 7 days 300 350000 20000 20 2.5



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model description WAIC
sc.fm2.2 temp 184.8314
sc.fm4.0 lure + snow + temp 186.2686
sc.fm4.2 lure + snow + temp + pass 186.7731
sc.fm5.1 lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow 186.9352
sc.fm5.0 lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow 187.0641
sc.fm2.1 snow 187.4755
sc.fm3.0 lure + snow 191.2103
sc.fm1 dot model 194.1884
sc.fm2.3 pass 196.7630
sc.fm2.0 lure 200.0865
sc.fm3.1 lure + pass 200.5594



Reversible Jump MCMC:

sc.fm6.0 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.96394
psi.ind 0.24782
beta.ind[3] 0.01000
beta.ind[1] 0.00048
beta.ind[5] 0.00006
beta.ind[4] 0.00000
beta.ind[6] 0.00000
sc.fm6.1 model: (reverse jump - unconstrained) lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow + lure * snow
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.96321
psi.ind 0.24636
beta.ind[3] 0.01115
beta.ind[4] 0.00327
beta.ind[5] 0.00236
beta.ind[1] 0.00079
beta.ind[6] 0.00079
sc.fm6.4 model: (reverse jump) lure + snow + temp + pass
cov indicator_mean
beta.ind[2] 0.97279
psi.ind 0.32967
beta.ind[3] 0.01558
beta.ind[1] 0.00121
beta.ind[4] 0.00006




Model summaries:

sc.fm1    summary:

dot model

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 691 193.352 275.705 105.00 300.00 0
D 691 108.567 154.808 58.96 168.45 0
sigma 1515 0.135 0.125 0.09 0.18 0
lam0 3682 0.674 0.237 0.08 1.38 0

N

D

sigma

lam0






sc.fm2.0    summary:

lure

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 820 200.537 264.944 114.00 300.00 0.00000
D 820 112.601 148.766 64.01 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2339 0.143 0.132 0.09 0.19 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5942 -1.288 -1.459 -2.34 -0.37 0.11493
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.009 0.036 -0.29 0.28 0.98252

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.1    summary:

snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 850 202.644 253.284 118.00 300.00 0.00000
D 850 113.784 142.219 66.26 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2938 0.163 0.153 0.11 0.21 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5270 -3.536 -3.425 -5.18 -1.91 0.00402
beta.lam0[1] 6158 -2.681 -2.258 -4.16 -1.03 0.00000

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.2    summary:

temp

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 860 207.121 278.037 123.00 300.00 0.00000
D 860 116.298 156.117 69.06 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2479 0.139 0.130 0.09 0.18 0.00000
beta0.lam0 6387 -1.584 -1.653 -2.66 -0.60 0.06718
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.781 0.726 0.42 1.18 0.00346

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm2.3    summary:

pass

summary table

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.

## Warning: Identical densities found along different segments of the distribution,
## choosing rightmost.
param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 802 194.523 221.747 107.00 300.00 0.00000
D 802 109.224 124.510 60.08 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2279 0.140 0.126 0.09 0.19 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5078 -1.167 -1.323 -2.42 -0.06 0.23768
beta.lam0[1] 4074 0.438 0.141 -1.38 2.13 0.97056

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]






sc.fm3.0    summary:

lure + snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 805 204.419 233.763 119.00 300.00 0.00000
D 805 114.781 131.258 66.82 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2640 0.164 0.153 0.11 0.22 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5564 -3.576 -3.402 -5.15 -1.93 0.00199
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.075 0.115 -0.18 0.36 0.88223
beta.lam0[2] 6477 -2.687 -2.308 -4.23 -1.12 0.00000

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm3.1    summary:

lure + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 712 192.730 207.981 104.00 300.00 0.00000
D 712 108.217 116.781 58.40 168.45 0.00000
sigma 1944 0.141 0.136 0.09 0.19 0.00000
beta0.lam0 4487 -1.193 -1.344 -2.47 -0.04 0.22960
beta.lam0[1] 16500 0.006 0.023 -0.28 0.29 0.98107
beta.lam0[2] 3433 0.450 0.260 -1.42 2.14 0.97381

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]






sc.fm4.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 747 208.535 279.674 123.00 300.00 0.00000
D 747 117.092 157.036 69.06 168.45 0.00000
sigma 3035 0.152 0.142 0.10 0.21 0.00000
beta0.lam0 5904 -3.115 -2.976 -4.73 -1.60 0.00488
beta.lam0[1] 15355 -0.123 -0.096 -0.43 0.21 0.87207
beta.lam0[2] 7405 -1.959 -1.580 -3.29 -0.52 0.01494
beta.lam0[3] 14461 0.536 0.538 0.08 1.03 0.19734

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]






sc.fm4.2    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 746 205.077 291.424 120.00 300.00 0.00000
D 746 115.150 163.634 67.38 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2200 0.151 0.133 0.10 0.20 0.00000
beta0.lam0 4279 -3.169 -3.118 -4.89 -1.44 0.01519
beta.lam0[1] 14588 -0.115 -0.111 -0.44 0.23 0.85662
beta.lam0[2] 6417 -1.962 -1.468 -3.35 -0.56 0.01497
beta.lam0[3] 13695 0.546 0.502 0.06 1.02 0.20541
beta.lam0[4] 4988 0.496 0.209 -1.06 2.00 0.94351

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]






sc.fm5.0    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + temp * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 775 200.248 238.978 112.00 300.00 0.00000
D 775 112.439 134.186 62.89 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2710 0.156 0.147 0.10 0.21 0.00000
beta0.lam0 1718 -4.728 -4.355 -7.22 -2.08 0.00592
beta.lam0[1] 11074 0.005 -0.008 -0.36 0.36 0.99946
beta.lam0[2] 1676 -3.907 -2.836 -6.42 -1.18 0.00309
beta.lam0[3] 1925 2.603 2.038 0.36 4.81 0.13183
beta.lam0[4] 5401 0.501 0.359 -1.03 1.91 0.88382
beta.lam0[5] 1905 2.616 1.803 -0.05 5.30 0.31983

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]






sc.fm5.1    summary:

lure + snow + temp + pass + lure * snow

summary table

param n_effective mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P
N 781 202.377 279.326 115.00 300.00 0.00000
D 781 113.634 156.841 64.57 168.45 0.00000
sigma 2853 0.155 0.145 0.10 0.21 0.00000
beta0.lam0 813 -5.936 -5.123 -9.33 -2.54 0.00520
beta.lam0[1] 757 -3.615 -2.624 -6.67 -0.18 0.19772
beta.lam0[2] 779 -5.111 -4.140 -8.60 -1.51 0.00371
beta.lam0[3] 7357 0.367 0.397 -0.18 0.89 0.54202
beta.lam0[4] 5178 0.556 0.471 -1.01 2.00 0.89166
beta.lam0[5] 748 -3.930 -2.981 -7.46 -0.26 0.22661

N

D

sigma

beta0.lam0

beta.lam0[1]

beta.lam0[2]

beta.lam0[3]

beta.lam0[4]

beta.lam0[5]